- Bearish: India’s sunflower oil imports slumped 44% in November to a two-year low of 145,000 tonnes, signalling weakened demand for Black Sea supplies.
- Bearish: Sunflower oil’s steep price premium over palm and soybean oil is triggering substitution and pressuring producers to cut prices.
- Bullish for Palm: Palm oil imports rose 4.6% to 630,000 tonnes and could climb to 750,000 tonnes in December as buyers switch to cheaper alternatives.
Indian Sunflower Oil Imports Plunge to Two-Year Low
India’s sunflower oil imports dropped 44% month-on-month in November to just 145,000 tonnes, the lowest level in two years. The decline comes as price-sensitive buyers sharply reduce purchases of higher-priced sunflower oil and pivot toward cheaper edible oils.
Total edible oil imports into India fell 11.5% in November to 1.18 million tonnes, a seven-month low, underscoring a broader contraction in demand. Within this slowdown, sunflower oil recorded the steepest drop as buyers reacted to its substantial price premium over competing oils.
Price Differentials and Demand Shifts
Dealers report that the November buying pattern was driven primarily by cost considerations. Sunflower oil is currently trading at a marked premium to both palm and soybean oil, prompting refiners and end-users to rebalance their import mix.
| Oil Type | Price Differential vs. Palm Oil | Price Differential vs. Soybean Oil |
|---|---|---|
| Sunflower Oil | +$200 / tonne | +$100 / tonne |
This pricing structure has led to a clear reallocation of India’s edible oil imports. Palm oil, the cheapest option, gained market share, while soybean oil saw moderate declines and sunflower oil experienced severe demand destruction.
| Oil Type | November Imports (tonnes) | Month-on-Month Change |
|---|---|---|
| Palm Oil | 630,000 | +4.6% |
| Soybean Oil | 400,000 | -12% |
| Sunflower Oil | 145,000 | -44% |
| Total Edible Oils | 1,180,000 | -11.5% |
Leading importers suggest this trend is likely to persist into December, with some analysts forecasting that India’s palm oil imports could increase further to around 750,000 tonnes as buyers continue to prioritize cost savings.
Market Impact on Black Sea Sunflower Oil
The sharp pullback in Indian buying is a bearish signal for the Black Sea sunflower oil market. Russia and Ukraine, key suppliers to India, now face weaker demand, stronger competition from palm oil, and rising pressure to adjust prices.
To regain market share in India, Black Sea origin sunflower oil will likely need to narrow its price gap versus palm and soybean oil. Without a more competitive pricing structure, the substitution trend toward lower-cost oils may become entrenched, further weighing on sunflower oil values.
Source: Market Data
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