- Slightly Bullish: FOB Black Sea sunflower oil prices rose by $5.00/t to $1,215.00/t, marking a weekly high on firm regional demand and tighter near-term supply.
- Bearish: Broad weakness in the soybean complex, including sharp declines in Brazilian soybean oil and global soybean meal benchmarks, signals headwinds for the wider vegetable oil market.
- Mixed Demand Signals: The divergence between rising Black Sea FOB and softer CIF Mumbai sunflower oil prices suggests cautious buying from key importers like India and possible freight or margin pressure.
Black Sea Sunflower Oil Strengthens
Black Sea origin sunflower oil began December on a firmer footing, with FOB prices climbing $5.00/t to $1,215.00/t, a weekly high. The move reflects resilient regional demand and potentially tighter nearby supply. However, the firmness at origin contrasts with softer prices into India, where CIF Mumbai values eased, hinting at more cautious end-user buying or improved freight dynamics that could compress seller margins.
Vegetable Oil Markets Show Divergent Moves
The broader vegetable oil complex delivered mixed signals on December 1, 2025. While Black Sea sunflower oil and several benchmarks reached weekly highs, Brazilian soybean oil weakened sharply, and rapeseed oil in the Netherlands printed a weekly low. This divergence underscores regional imbalances in demand and supply, as well as differing expectations for crop prospects and crush margins.
| Commodity | Basis | Price ($/t) | Daily Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower Oil | FOB Black Sea | 1,215.00 | +$5.00 | Weekly High |
| Sunflower Oil | CIF Mumbai | 1,323.35 | -$9.95 | – |
| Soybean Oil | FOB EU | 1,276.53 | +$13.17 | Weekly High |
| Soybean Oil | FOB Brazil | 1,139.77 | -$35.12 | Weekly Low |
| Soybean Oil | US CBOT | 1,147.73 | +$6.61 | Weekly High |
| Rapeseed Oil | FOB Netherlands | 1,265.53 | -$9.98 | Weekly Low |
| Palm Oil | FOB Malaysia | 1,019.88 | +$2.49 | Weekly High |
Meal & Oilseed Prices Under Pressure
Meal and oilseed benchmarks largely trended lower, pointing to a softer tone across the complex. Soybean meal prices at Brazil FOB, US CBOT, and CIF EU all declined to or near weekly lows, weighing on crush margins and sentiment. Rapeseed meal and sunflower meal bucked the trend with modest gains and fresh weekly highs, but these were not enough to offset the broader bearish signal emanating from soy-related contracts.
| Commodity | Basis | Price ($/t) | Daily Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower Meal | CIF France | 261.23 | +$0.33 | Weekly High |
| Soybean Meal | FOB Brazil | 331.34 | -$3.58 | Weekly Low |
| Soybean Meal | US CBOT | 342.93 | -$3.64 | Weekly Low |
| Soybean Meal | CIF EU | 388.05 | -$4.97 | – |
| Rapeseed Meal | FOB EU | 218.27 | +$3.76 | Weekly High |
| Soybeans | US CBOT | 414.46 | -$3.58 | – |
| Rapeseed | MATIF France | 556.14 | -$4.22 | – |
Outlook for Sunflower Oil and the Wider Complex
The current structure of the market points to a Slightly Bullish near-term outlook for Black Sea sunflower oil, supported by firm FOB values and regional demand. Yet the softness in destination markets such as India, along with pronounced weakness in the soybean complex, may limit further upside. If soybean oil and meal continue to retreat, sunflower oil could face increased competition from cheaper alternatives, capping rallies and encouraging more cautious forward coverage from buyers.
Source: Market Data
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