- Russian dominance: Russia’s share of Israel’s wheat imports has surged to 89% in 2024/25 from 39% in 2020/21, cementing its role as the key supplier and price-setter.
- Stable demand growth: USDA projects Israel’s wheat imports to rise to 2.15 million tons in 2025/26, supporting sustained demand for Russian exports.
- Pressure on rivals: Romanian and Ukrainian wheat shipments to Israel have fallen sharply, underscoring intense price competition and the need to find alternative markets.
Russian Wheat Solidifies Dominance in Israeli Market
Russia has rapidly expanded its presence in the Israeli wheat market, with exports reaching 1.6 million tons in the 2024/25 season. This volume secures an 89% share of Israel’s import market, more than doubling Russia’s 39% share (0.6 million tons) recorded in the 2020/21 season.
The expansion comes against a backdrop of growing import needs. The USDA forecasts Israel’s wheat imports will rise to 2.15 million tons in the 2025/26 season, up from a typical 2.0 million tons, as population growth drives higher consumption. This provides a stable and gradually growing demand base for exporters able to compete on price and reliability.
Shifting Black Sea Trade Flows
While Russia has consolidated its position, other Black Sea suppliers have seen their role in Israel sharply reduced. Romanian and Ukrainian exporters have lost significant market share over the past four seasons, highlighting how aggressive Russian pricing and logistics are reshaping trade flows into the Eastern Mediterranean.
| Supplier | 2020/21 Volume (Mn Tons) | 2020/21 Share | 2024/25 Volume (Mn Tons) | 2024/25 Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 0.60 | 39% | 1.60 | 89% |
| Romania | 0.30 | 22% | 0.026 | 1% |
| Ukraine | 0.20 | 13% | 0.10 | 8% |
Market Implications
Bullish for Russian wheat: The strong and growing foothold in Israel reinforces Russia’s role as the dominant regional supplier and key price-setter. A stable destination with rising import needs offers Russian exporters consistent demand and supports utilization of export capacity.
Bearish for Romanian and Ukrainian wheat: The collapse in shipments to Israel signals that Romanian and Ukrainian wheat is being priced out of this market. Traders from these origins may need to redirect volumes to alternative destinations, potentially at discounts, increasing competitive pressure in other import markets.
Overall, the Israeli wheat import structure underscores how Russian competitiveness is reshaping Black Sea trade flows, with Russia consolidating market share at the expense of regional rivals.
Source: Market Data
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