- Bullish sunflower oil: Higher Russian export duty raises global costs and may support rival Black Sea prices.
- Bearish sunflower meal: Lower Russian export duty boosts export competitiveness and adds supply pressure to global markets.
Russia Raises December Export Duty on Sunflower Oil
Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture has increased the export duty on sunflower oil to 8,214.5 RUB/t for December, up from 6,813.6 RUB/t in November, a 20.6% month-on-month rise. The revision reflects a higher indicative price for Russian sunflower oil, which climbed to $1,169.5/t from $1,140.3/t.
In contrast, the export duty on sunflower meal has been cut to 783.1 RUB/t in December from 1,094.7 RUB/t in November, a 28.5% decrease. The adjustment follows a softer indicative price, which edged down to $210.9/t from $215.6/t.
Export Duty and Indicative Price Changes
| Product | December Duty (RUB/t) | November Duty (RUB/t) | Indicative Price (Dec) | Indicative Price (Nov) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower Oil | 8,214.5 | 6,813.6 | $1,169.5/t | $1,140.3/t |
| Sunflower Meal | 783.1 | 1,094.7 | $210.9/t | $215.6/t |
Market Impact Analysis
Bullish for Sunflower Oil: The higher export duty lifts the effective cost of Russian sunflower oil for international buyers, potentially eroding Russia’s price advantage versus other Black Sea origins, particularly Ukraine. This shift could underpin regional sunflower oil values and may pressure Russian domestic sunseed prices as crush margins for exporters narrow.
Bearish for Sunflower Meal: The sizeable reduction in the sunflower meal export duty enhances the competitiveness of Russian-origin meal on the world market. Increased availability of Russian meal exports could weigh on international prices and intensify supply competition in key import destinations.
Source: Market Data
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