- Bearish supply signal: Novorossiysk wheat loadings surged to 2.44 MMT in November, reinforcing abundant Russian export availability.
- Strong regional demand: Iran, Egypt, and Turkey led buying, highlighting persistent MENA demand for competitively priced Russian wheat.
- Price pressure on rivals: Robust Black Sea logistics and aggressive Russian exports continue to weigh on alternative origins and global wheat prices.
Novorossiysk Wheat Export Surge
Russian wheat exports from the deep-sea port of Novorossiysk accelerated in November, with total loadings reaching 2.44 MMT (2,438.5 thousand tons). This marks a sharp year-on-year increase from 1.95 MMT (1,949.5 thousand tons) in the same month last year, underscoring Russia’s ability to sustain a high export pace.
The expansion in shipped volumes highlights the continued competitiveness of Russian wheat in global markets. Ample supplies and efficient port operations are enabling exporters to capture market share, particularly in key MENA destinations that remain heavily reliant on Black Sea origins.
Key Import Destinations
Demand from major buyers in the Middle East and North Africa remained strong, with Iran, Egypt, Turkey, and Sudan accounting for the bulk of November wheat loadings from Novorossiysk.
| Country | Volume (Thousand Tons) |
|---|---|
| Iran | 882.9 |
| Egypt | 424.7 |
| Turkey | 193.0 |
| Sudan | 192.7 |
Market Impact and Price Outlook
The elevated shipment pace from Novorossiysk is a bearish signal for the global wheat market. Large, steady flows of Russian wheat into MENA are helping to cap international prices by meeting import demand with competitively priced supplies. This environment intensifies pressure on alternative exporters, whose ability to command premiums is constrained by aggressive Black Sea offers.
The latest data also reinforces confidence in Black Sea logistics. Novorossiysk is demonstrating the capacity to move sizeable volumes efficiently, supporting Russia’s role as a dominant supplier and maintaining a heavy export program that continues to shape global wheat price dynamics.
Source: Market Data
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