- Bearish: Kazakhstan’s 14.8% YoY jump in grain exports to Central Asia tightens competition for Black Sea origin supplies into regional landlocked markets.
- Bearish: Strong rail logistics and higher imports by Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Afghanistan reduce the need for these buyers to source via Russian or Ukrainian deep-sea ports.
- Neutral/Bearish: Kurgan region grain flows to China remain active, but slightly lower flax volumes versus last year underscore shifting trade dynamics.
Kazakhstan Rail Grain Exports Strengthen in Central Asia
Kazakhstan’s grain exports from September 1 to November 27, 2025, reached 3.1 million metric tons (MMT), up from 2.7 MMT in the same period last year, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and the national railway operator. This nearly 15% year-on-year increase is driven primarily by stronger demand from neighboring Central Asian importers, with rail remaining the dominant logistics channel.
Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Afghanistan all scaled up purchases of Kazakh grain, leveraging efficient overland rail corridors. This regionalized trade pattern is consolidating Kazakhstan’s role as a key intra-Central Asian grain supplier, particularly for landlocked destinations where rail economics are favorable versus seaborne alternatives.
Kazakhstan Grain Export Volumes by Destination
| Destination | 2025 Volume (MT) | 2024 Volume (MT) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uzbekistan | 1,416,000 | 1,066,000 | +32.8% |
| Kyrgyzstan | 90,000 | 44,000 | +104.5% |
| Afghanistan | 179,000 | 139,000 | +28.8% |
| Total | 3,100,000 | 2,700,000 | +14.8% |
Regional Trade Flows: Russia’s Kurgan Region to China
In a separate regional development, Russia’s Kurgan region exported over 23,000 tons of grains and oilseeds to China in November. The shipments comprised 20,200 tons of flax, 1,600 tons of oats, and 1,600 tons of buckwheat. Flax exports were slightly below the 22,000 tons recorded in November last year, indicating modest softening in this specific flow even as aggregate volumes remain solid.
Market Impact and Price Sentiment
Bearish. The robust performance of Kazakhstan’s rail-based grain exports into Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Afghanistan is structurally negative for Black Sea-origin grains targeting Central Asia. As these landlocked buyers secure more supply directly from Kazakhstan via cost-efficient rail, their reliance on Russian or Ukrainian deep-sea ports diminishes. This intensifies competition for market share in the region and can weigh on demand and basis levels for Black Sea supplies destined for Central Asian end-users.
The combination of strong Kazakh regional flows and ongoing, albeit slightly softer, Russian exports from Kurgan to China underscores a broader trend: intra-regional logistics advantages are increasingly determining trade patterns and pricing power in Eurasian grain markets.
Source: Market Data
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