- Record harvest pressure: Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture forecasts a record rapeseed crop of 5.4 million tons within a 31.7 million ton total oilseed harvest, amplifying supply-side pressure.
- Global oversupply: Ample global and domestic rapeseed and soybean supplies are expected to keep prices under sustained downward pressure.
- Weak price environment: End-of-November OleoScope data shows rapeseed in Central Russia at 37,700 RUB/ton and soybeans at 30,500 RUB/ton, reflecting a soft pricing backdrop.
- Demand-driven trading: Traders are prioritizing commodities with stronger immediate demand, leaving surplus crops like rapeseed more exposed to price declines.
- Processing incentive: A 20% export duty on raw oilseeds is shifting the advantage toward exports of processed products such as soybean and rapeseed meal, supporting domestic crushing demand.
Market Overview
Independent agricultural expert Alexander Korbut notes a bearish outlook for key export crops, especially rapeseeds, as forecasts point to a substantial global harvest and ongoing oversupply. Traders are increasingly focused on actual demand signals, which is weighing on prices for crops with surplus availability.
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture projects a record rapeseed harvest of 5.4 million tons and a soybean harvest of 8.6 million tons, contributing to an expected total oilseed crop of 31.7 million tons. This anticipated overproduction is creating a challenging export environment, with analysts expecting continued low prices across the oilseed complex.
A similar pattern is visible in the grain market, where feed barley is trading at roughly the same level as third-grade milling wheat (around $230/ton). This alignment highlights how shifting global demand is reshaping price priorities across different crop segments.
Domestic Oilseed Prices
End-of-November domestic prices underscore the soft tone in the Russian oilseed market, with rapeseed and soybeans in Central Russia priced below levels that would typically be expected in a tighter supply environment.
| Commodity | Region | Price (End of November) |
|---|---|---|
| Rapeseed | Central Russia | 37,700 RUB/ton |
| Soybean | Central Russia | 30,500 RUB/ton |
Export Duty and Processing Dynamics
The existing 20% export duty on raw oilseeds makes shipments of unprocessed rapeseed and soybeans less competitive on the global market. In contrast, processed products such as rapeseed meal and soybean meal are relatively more attractive for export, which is likely to support higher domestic crushing volumes.
This policy framework, combined with ample raw seed supplies, is expected to channel more rapeseed and soybeans into domestic processing, potentially improving margins for crushers while capping farm-gate prices for seed.
Market Sentiment and Price Outlook
Bearish. The convergence of record domestic rapeseed production and a broader global oversupply establishes a fundamentally bearish backdrop for prices through the export season. Market participants should prepare for continued pressure on rapeseed valuations, with traders favoring commodities that exhibit stronger immediate demand. Under the current export duty regime, domestic processing is likely to capture more value, while raw seed exports and producer pricing remain constrained.
Source: Market Data
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