Russian Wheat Export Duty Cut Sparks Price Shift

• Bearish (spot): Russia’s wheat export duty will be slashed to 8.9 rubles/ton for Dec 3–9, 2025, boosting export competitiveness and pressuring near-term Black Sea prices.
• Bullish (new-crop): Early 2026 Russian wheat harvest forecasts of 82–90 MMT, with a PIC consensus of 85.9 MMT, point to tighter future supply and support for forward pricing.
• Neutral for corn & barley: Export duties for corn and barley remain at zero over the same period, maintaining current trade flows.

Market Update

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has announced a substantial reduction in the export duty on wheat and meslin. From December 3 to December 9, 2025, the duty will be set at just 8.9 rubles per ton, down sharply from prior levels and aimed at enhancing the competitiveness of Russian wheat in global markets. Export duties for corn and barley will remain at zero during this window, leaving the cost structure for those grains unchanged.

In parallel, analysts have begun publishing early outlooks for Russia’s 2026 wheat harvest. Current projections span a relatively wide band of 82–90 million tons, reflecting significant uncertainty around weather conditions and yield potential. The Price Index Center’s November consensus forecast is 85.9 million tons, implying a smaller crop than recent record years.

Several structural factors are cited behind the potentially lower 2026 output: reduced spring wheat plantings, a slowdown in farm machinery purchases, and a prospective acreage shift into higher-margin oilseeds. Combined, these trends suggest Russia may have less exportable wheat surplus in the 2026/27 marketing year.

Price Impact Analysis

The sharp cut in the wheat export duty is a bearish signal for the spot market. By lowering the tax burden, Russian wheat becomes more price-competitive versus alternative origins, which could boost near-term shipments and exert downward pressure on Black Sea FOB values and, by extension, some importing country benchmarks.

Conversely, the early indications of a smaller 2026 harvest are a bullish driver for new-crop and forward pricing. Expectations of reduced supply from the world’s largest wheat exporter point to a tighter balance sheet for 2026/27, likely supporting deferred contracts even as nearby prices face headwinds from increased export availability in the short run.

Russian Wheat Outlook: Key Numbers

Source: Market Data