- Bullish: Speculative buying pushed Argentine soybean meal to a 13-month high ($360/t), supported by renewed Chinese purchases of US soybeans.
- Bearish: Market fundamentals do not support current prices; record US meal production and surging Chinese soybean oil exports are expected to intensify competition and pressure global prices lower.
Global Soybean Meal Rally Viewed as Speculative Amid Shifting Trade Flows
The global soybeans complex is experiencing significant volatility, with speculative trading and shifting fundamentals driving recent price surges. Soybean meal futures on the CBOT rallied sharply on the back of renewed Chinese interest in US soybeans, sending Argentine meal prices up 20% since September and marking their highest level since 2023.
Despite these gains, analysts at OilWorld caution that the rally looks unsustainable, pointing to robust supply projections. The USDA projects US soybean meal production will hit a record 55 million tonnes in 2025/26, a 2 million tonne increase year over year, which will outstrip domestic demand and force higher export availability onto the world market—likely weighing on global prices ahead.
China’s domestic soymeal demand remains weak, with stocks exceeding 1 million tons, but prices edged higher. Meanwhile, China is aggressively expanding its soybean oil exports, contracting up to 200,000 tons for Q4 2025 and making India a key buyer. This marks a significant shift, as last year’s Q4 totaled only 61,000 tons.
| Commodity | Location | Date | Delivery | Price ($/t) | Daily Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soybean Meal | Dalian, China | Nov 26, 2025 | November | $425.82 | +$1.93 |
Analysis & Market Impact
Market Outlook: Bearish. While the short-term rally offers a window for exports from the Black Sea, fundamentals point to a bearish long-term trend. Rising US production and surging Chinese soybean oil exports will trigger more aggressive price competition globally, likely resulting in downward price pressure for both meal and vegoil. Black Sea exporters should brace for a more challenging and competitive season ahead, particularly with China’s soybean oil targeting India and threatening Black Sea sunoil’s market share.
Source: Market Data
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