- Argentina’s wheat harvest is forecast to reach a record 25.5 million tonnes—surpassing the previous high.
- The harvest is over one-third complete, with yields coming in stronger than anticipated.
Market Update
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange projects Argentina’s 2023/24 season wheat harvest could reach a record 25.5 million tonnes. This forecast, reported on November 28, surpasses the previous record of 22.4 million tonnes harvested in the 2021/22 marketing year.
Argentine farmers have progressed with the harvest, having threshed 33.9% of the total planted area. Yields are currently exceeding expectations, averaging 35.9 centners per hectare (3.59 t/ha), which supports the higher production forecast.
Analysis
Bearish. A larger-than-expected wheat crop from a key Southern Hemisphere exporter increases global supply estimates. This development will likely intensify price competition in destination markets, placing downward pressure on global benchmarks and, consequently, on Black Sea origin wheat prices.
Source: Market Data
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