Ukrainian Corn Supply Tightens Amid Harvest Delays

Ukrainian Corn Supply Tightens on Harvest Delays, Spot Prices Firm

• High moisture content in Ukrainian corn is slowing harvest progress and creating significant bottlenecks at grain elevators, limiting spot market supply.
• Persistent logistical challenges have pushed Ukrainian spot corn prices to $211-212/ton, maintaining a premium over forward contracts.
• Globally, ample supplies in other regions such as South Africa are putting downward pressure on corn prices, with South African prices down over 25% year-on-year.

Market Update

Ukraine’s corn harvest continues to face significant delays, with roughly one-third of the crop still standing in the fields, particularly in the northern and western regions. To date, nearly 21 million tons have been harvested, but logistical constraints remain acute. The main limitation is excessive grain moisture, with 10–12% needing to be dried before delivery, causing grain elevators to reach capacity and request producers pause new intake until backlogs are resolved.

These logistical bottlenecks are supporting spot corn prices locally, despite improving harvest conditions. Conversely, the global outlook weighs on corn prices, as ample supplies from other exporters—especially South Africa’s record harvest—are driving prices lower on the world market.

Meanwhile, a recent USDA update highlights that a record 2024–25 South African corn crop is curbing future plantings. Domestic yellow corn prices in South Africa have fallen by 25% year-on-year. For 2025–26, local production is forecast at 16 million tons—contributing further to the global supply glut.

Analysis

Bullish (Short-Term, Local): Logistical bottlenecks in Ukraine are supporting immediate spot prices and basis, with the inverted market signaling strong demand for limited available supply. Traders able to access drying infrastructure may benefit from favorable margins during this period of restricted supply.

Bearish (Medium-Term, Regional/Global): Ukraine’s issues remain localized and are not affecting the global balance sheet, which is well-supplied. As harvest delays ease and new crop becomes available, local prices are likely to realign with softer global benchmarks. The current premium for Ukrainian spot corn could be short-lived.