Soybean Meal Prices Surge to 13-Month Highs Despite Weak Fundamentals
- Argentine soybean meal reached $360/t on November 13, a 13-month high and 20% above September levels.
- OilWorld analysts caution that recent price gains are speculative and not grounded in market fundamentals.
- US meal production for 2025/26 projected at a record 55 million tonnes, leading to export pressures.
Market Update
The soybean meal market has experienced a dramatic rally, sparked by renewed Chinese purchases of US soybeans and heightened volatility on the Chicago Board of Trade. On November 13, Argentine soybean meal prices reached $360 per tonne—marking not only a 13-month high but also a 20% increase over September averages.
| Origin/Contract | Date | Price (USD/t) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentine Soybean Meal | Nov 13 | $360 | +20% vs Sep avg |
| Chinese Dalian Futures (Nov Delivery) | Nov 26 | $425.82 | +$1.93 vs prev. session |
Despite rallying prices, underlying market fundamentals remain weak. Chinese Dalian soybean meal futures climbed to $425.82 per tonne for November delivery, representing the week’s highest value, even as local demand cooled and stocks surpassed 1 million tonnes.
US soybean processors are forecasting record production in the 2025/26 marketing year, expecting meal output to reach 55 million tonnes—2 million above current levels. Since domestic demand alone cannot offset the supply surge, US exporters are likely to intensify their global sales efforts.
Analysis
Bearish for Black Sea: The projected wave of US soybean meal exports will raise competition in the Middle East and North Africa, traditional destinations for Black Sea suppliers. OilWorld’s view that the current price surge lacks a fundamental basis suggests a correction is looming, likely increasing downward price pressure for all origins. Black Sea exporters should brace for tougher conditions and increased pricing competition in coming months as the US pursues aggressive export strategies.
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