Soybean Meal Price Pressure Amid US Supply Surge

• The recent surge in global soybean meal prices, driven by China’s return to US soybean purchases, is viewed as temporary and sentiment-based by analysts.
• US soybean processors report record inventories and processing volumes; meal production is forecast to reach an unprecedented 55 million tons in 2025/26.
• A growing US surplus is expected to increase export competition, generating downward pressure on global soybean meal prices.

Market Update

Global soybean meal prices have spiked following China’s renewed purchases of US soybeans, causing a rally on the CBOT and sending Argentine soybean meal prices to a 13-month high of $360 per tonne on November 13—almost 20% above September averages.

Despite this surge, Oil World analysts caution that the rally lacks solid fundamental support and may be short-lived. Benchmark rates remain mostly stable, with spot prices fluctuating between $300 and $360 per tonne, driven primarily by CBOT market sentiment and volatility.

US processors continue to report record raw material inventories, and October soybean processing volumes set a new monthly record. Annual processing volumes are on track to increase again, with soybean meal output projected to reach a record 55 million tons for the 2025/26 season—up 2 million tons year on year. This surplus will exceed domestic demand, requiring US processors to seek expanded export opportunities.

Analysis

Bearish. The fundamental outlook is bearish for the Black Sea region and global protein meals. A projected surplus of US soybean meal will force American processors to compete more aggressively for export market share—especially in regions like the EU and North Africa that have traditionally imported meal from Black Sea origins. This increased supply of competitively priced US meal will likely cap global protein meal prices and exert notable downward pressure on both soybean and sunflower meal markets in the coming months.