Russian Wheat Production Forecast 2026: Decline Ahead

• Russian wheat production forecast to decline to 85.5–88 million tons in 2026, down from 88.4–88.5 million tons in 2025.
• Export competitiveness under pressure: Russian wheat priced at $227/ton FOB Novorossiysk, above French wheat.
• November exports robust at 4 million tons (through Nov 24), targeting 5.2+ million tons for the month.
• Structural challenges: reduced wheat acreage, lower input investments, farmer shift to oilseeds.
• 2026 Russian wheat market sentiment remains cautiously bearish; weather variability could swing output 82–90 million tons.

Market Update

Russian wheat production is projected to decline in 2026 as margin pressures shift planted cropland towards soybeans and sunflowers. The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) forecasts a 2026 harvest between 86–91 million tons. In contrast, most experts surveyed by Interfax converge on 85.5–88 million tons, slightly below this year’s 88.4–88.5 million tons.

While IKAR points to stable winter wheat acreage and improved crop conditions, there are concerns about reduced spring wheat plantings and lower investments in fertilizers and related inputs. November’s Price Index Center consensus revised the 2026 total grain output forecast down to 135.3 million tons (from 137.8 million tons in August), with wheat specifically trimmed to 85.9 million tons (from 89 million).

Export and Price Table

Export Performance

Despite pricing disadvantages and the impact of a strong ruble, Russian grain exports in November have remained strong. Shipments reached about 4 million tons by November 24. Industry estimates suggest that wheat exports could exceed 5.2 million tons for the full month, with total grain exports estimated at 5.8–5.9 million tons.

Analysis

Russian wheat producers are contending with fundamental profitability concerns as quality advantages are offset by higher export prices relative to global competitors. While 2026 supply is expected to remain significant, bearish sentiment persists due to lower spring plantings and reduced input use. Key risks remain tied to weather and currency trends, with production estimates fluctuating by as much as 8 million tons. The market’s focus will be on future competitiveness and acreage trends as the crop year approaches.