Key Takeaways
- China’s Sep–Oct soybean imports reached 22.4 MT, up 2.9 MT year-on-year.
- The US supplied zero soybeans to China in Sep–Oct; South America gained this market share.
- Analysts expect Chinese soybean imports to slow in Nov–Dec due to large domestic stockpiles and weak soymeal demand.
Market Update
China’s demand for soybeans accelerated in the early part of Q4, with September–October imports totaling 22.4 million tons—an increase from 19.5 million tons a year ago. This rapid pace sets a record for the calendar year, as total imports from January through October hit 95.7 million tons, compared to 89.9 million tons in the same period last year.
Trade flows shifted dramatically: the US supplied zero soybeans during September–October (vs. 2.3 MT in the prior year), while Argentina increased shipments to 2.7 MT (up from 2.0 MT). South American exporters have successfully captured China’s market share this season.
Analysis
Bearish. Despite historically high import figures providing short-term support, forward-looking indicators are negative for the global soybeans market. With projections of reduced Chinese purchases in November–December and weak domestic soymeal demand, a slowdown in crush activity is likely. Softer demand from China—the world’s biggest buyer—could exert downward pressure on global prices, impacting producers in the Black Sea and other export regions.
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